2030 by Mauro F Guillen

Every few years, a futurist comes up and dazzles with ideas about how the future will look like. 

If it was Arthur C. Clarke in the yesteryears who predicted the internet and the satellites, it was Allwyn Toffler who, with his Future Shock literally rocked the world for several years. Yuval Novah Harrari did that in the recent past with his book Sapiens, commenting about humankind’s past in the perspective of the future. 

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Author : Mauro F Guillen
Originally Published : 2020
Publication :St. Martin’s Press
Pages : 288
Genre(s) :-
Non-Fiction, Business, Politics

Mauto Guillen’s book 2030 looks in a similar direction- introspective and predictive. In March this year, Guillen took over as the Director of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Guillen is no crystal ball gazer nor is he a tarot card reader. Having conducted comparative studies of companies and management practices, Guillen stands on a strong footing to comment on the future of Multinationals in the twenty first century. The notion and units of wealth have changed from the ancient times- from shells and beads to cattle, farm and gold, we have come a long way. Today’s world counts even Non Fungible Tokens and Bitcoins as wealth while one cannot even see them. Guillen predicts that countries with demographic advantages will stand a chance to flourish in the years to come. 

Guillens’s top predictions for 2030

  1. That many of today’s developed nations will be burdened with an ageing population while others like India and China, who have the demographic dividend with almost 65% of youth among the population (age 15 to 35), will steer the course of the future.
  2. The rise of the Asian emerging markets is a no-brainer given that huge populations combined with easy access to education and technology will give rise to a massive market
  3. Declining fertility and increasing life expectancy will lead to new challenges with fewer people to man the machines. That, in turn will give rise to a swarm of Robots for repetitive tasks as well as precision ones. 
  4. As more and more women join the workforce at all levels and turn earners, they will emerge as large wealth holders. In entrepreneurship, leadership and as wealth accumulators, women will come to play  a larger role in the years to come. 
  5. Computers, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning will become the norm rather than just an aid to human intelligence. Technology has enabled remote working as doct
  6. Guillen predicts that there will be more currencies than there will be nations in this world, implying the surge in crypto and other currencies. Even today, Dogecoin and Bitcoins have fascinated the world for their unique mode of transaction and value. Rather than being issued by countries and leaving absolutely no trace, Blockchain enables tracing the path of the currency generated by systems rather than governments and central banks based on gold and forex reserves. 
  7. A key insight from this book is the obsolescence of a one- time education model. Life -long learning, people with multiple careers and constant redundancy of technology as new ones emerge will be the new normal, making it clear that people and companies will need to constantly need to evolve with the times.
  8. The first millennials will retire in the next 20 years and these retirees will embrace technology in every aspect of life. Nations with declining populations will make way for those with a booming population, as migration will try to mitigate the former’s disadvantage. 
  9. The youth will find entrepreneurship easier than ever before but will adopt a sharing policy rather than sole ownership. No business can be done without collaboration in the days to come.  There could be a time when three generations would be seamlessly functioning in an enterprise with the elder population, healthier than a couple of generations ago and tech savvy, will find place in the new order as they delay their retirement. 
  10. The geo-political implications of the shift in the world’s focus from today’s developed countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Japan) will be far- fetched within a multi polar world. Largest market nations like India, China, Brazil will hog the importance and rule the markets

Call for action 

Guillen has a word or two for the leadership of the world- come to terms with these changes or be ready to become obsolete. 

A sharp reader would immediately spot the business opportunities at each of these points and realize that the way we do business and the targets will constantly keep evolving along with business itself. A word of caution on the count of global warming and the call for action before large swathes of land gets submerged in the rising ocean levels. Water wars is also something one cannot just ignore, which will become a reality soon. 

Key takeaways-

  1. Though not completely surprising, the trends predicted in 2030 leave you with a sense of urgency in adapting to a fast changing world
  2. The current world order is slated to be toppled with the old rigid systems being replaced by flexible, transparent and neutral systems 
  3. While one cannot stop the impending change, the best way is to gear up and embrace change

Why I recommend this book

For the sole reason that such a book leaves you with a tangible thought and cohesive steps needed. Once you realize that what took you here will not take you further, you know what you’ve got to do. It isn’t that we need to take active steps towards a new world, we will, like in the past, float along with the changes that sweep the world. It’s just that knowing and adapting quickly will enable us to emerge a winner. 

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